In 2010 we looked at the “Merchants of Tarshish and her young lions” – the role of Britain and her commonwealth allies in the Middle East; and last year we looked at the other two countries mentioned in the same verse in Ezekiel 38 – Sheba and Dedan. These nations challenge Gog and his companions concerning their reason for invading Israel.
“Sheba, and Dedan, and the merchants of Tarshish, with all the young lions thereof, shall say unto thee, Art thou come to take a spoil? hast thou gathered thy company to take a prey? to carry away silver and gold, to take away cattle and goods, to take a great spoil?” Ezekiel 38:13
It seems appropriate to try to see what is the
“spoil and the prey” that brings the nations to attack Israel. This invasion of Israel lies probably some years after the return of Christ to his household; so it brings home the nearness of our Master’s return when we can already see the signs of great wealth being found in Israel and her maritime borders. So staggering is the potential of this wealth that one can see it as being as great a sign for our generation as the establishment of the State of Israel was to the previous generation.
Strategic supplies at a critical time
The gas finds in Israel, with the potential for oil, certainly have been a striking feature of just the past three years. After years of seeing many of her neighbours awash with energy, it is now Israel’s turn to move up into the energy super-league.
The new gas finds couldn’t have come at a more critical time. Israel’s main gas well, the Mari B field, is rapidly becoming exhausted since it first came on stream in 2004.
Israel has also been receiving gas from Egypt since 2008, when a branch pipeline off the Arab Gas Pipeline was finished. This runs under the sea to Ashkelon where the majority of Israel’s power stations are located. Some 2bn M3 a year was shipped to Israel and turned into electricity. The
pipeline is capable of carrying up to 9bn M3 a year, and Israel was negotiating to dramatically increase the volume of gas purchased from Egypt, when the Arab “Spring” erupted in Egypt and supplies greatly disrupted by the pipeline being blown up on 14 different occasions! The contract to supply gas to Israel has subsequently been torn up. Faced with the disruption in supply, Israel has had to switch to much more expensive oil and coal to generate her electrical needs. Electricity prices have rocketed in Israel as a consequence – now more than a 1/3rd more than last summer. This is quite a problem for Israel. Hence the seeming fortuitous timing of the discovery of the large fields in the past few years. The Israeli government has insisted that those who are finding gas in their licenced block must bring it to the market as quickly as possible. Close to the fast running out Mari B field are several new finds, small in size, but in shallow water and can easily be connected to the existing Mari B pipelines. The earliest of these should come on stream by the time this is printed and should tide the gas supplies over until Tamar comes on stream, which is due in 2013.
This slide of gas finds is getting very full, yet apart from the Mari-B field are all discoveries in the past three years!
Israel’s plans for exporting energy
With the volumes of gas expected from the Tamar well, Israel is busy planning how to export part of it, as it should more than adequately meet Israel’s needs. Gas pipelines are expensive to build and most of the nearby countries that could benefit from Israeli gas are countries nominally at war with her! Even Turkey, who was until two years ago friendly, is now decidedly unfriendly. There are two solutions. The first is to liquefy it by compression; it can then be loaded into specially constructed ships and taken to anywhere in the world that has the facilities to handle the gas, turning it back into its gaseous form. There is a great call for gas in Asia, especially Japan as she phases out nuclear power, where prices are two or three times higher than in Europe. Israel is therefore cooperating with Daewoo, a S. Korean firm that specialises in shipping LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) as well as the land side plant. The uniqueness of this venture revolves around the fact that little Israel does not want to put the necessary plant to liquefy the gas in any of her coastal towns. NIMBY Not-in–my-backyard seems to be the order of the day; there are also security considerations. So Daewoo are building a ship with the equipment on board, so it can be moored close to the off-shore well and can link up with their carrying ships. An elegant solution. Israel recognises she will have to provide security to the wells, so guarding an extra ship should not be too much of a problem.
The second solution to exporting gas is also a first. Israel is not alone in generating electricity from gas in preference to coal or oil. It is cleaner, cheaper and much easier. So instead of exporting
gas in liquid form or along difficult and expensive pipelines, Israel, working with Cyprus and Greece and supported by the US, is planning to export electricity rather than gas. Initially the generation plants will be in Israel and an undersea electric cable laid to one end of Cyprus. A land cable will run across the island to the other end, connecting to another undersea cable to Crete. Crete is already “attached” to Greece by a submarine cable. The costs are enormous €1.5bn (A$2bn) – but far less than a gas pipeline, and much quicker to lay. Israel and her partners are hoping to have this up and running by 2016! The initial capacity is 2,000 MW (about a 1/6th the capacity of the nine nuclear power stations that Germany is phasing out due to environmental pressures.) They are talking of laying more cables to double the capacity by 2020. The pay-back period for these huge investments is very short – four years, indicating the high value of this revenue earner. The Israeli government are proposing to establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund to channel the estimated A$2bn yearly revenue from these energy sources.
Part of the reasoning behind this electrical link-up is the fact that Cyprus also potentially has great gas reserves, part of the same Levantine Basin. The Aphrodite well shows a potential reserve of 144bn M3; this is the first of many planned wells.
The Cyprus government has just closed bidding on the next exploration blocks to be released, receiving competing bids from 15 companies! Like Israel, the potential gas volumes are far greater than Cyprus can ever consume; the population of the whole island is 1/7th that of Israel! Cyprus is a divided country – it is not without significance that it is divided into a Turkish and a Greek section, ever since Turkey invaded the north of the island in 1974. The Greek southern part joined the EU in 2004 and became a member of the eurozone in 2008. Israel’s ties to Greek Cyprus have grown as her ties to Turkey have waned following the Gaza blockage flotilla incident in May 2010. Turkey has strenuously complained about Israel’s assistance to southern Cyprus to exploit the gas resources. Israel has even made a military pact to help defend any drilling rigs or gas rigs against attack from Turkey. Turkey and mainland Greece have long been at loggerheads, so Israel’s recent switch to supporting Greece rather than Turkey has, in Turkey’s eyes, compounded Israel’s wrongs.
Supplying energy to Europe is not good news for Russia either; reports indicate that she was hoping to buy Israeli gas to export to the Far East in order to keep it out of the European markets where she has a large percentage of the market and to some extent is able to keep prices high. So here is another reason for Russia to look with lustful eyes at the abundance of energy being found in the area.
Israel and oil
The Israelis have been researching for many years how they could wean themselves off oil, an expensive product and liable to be cut off in time of war. The Israeli Energy and Water Ministry has an oil replacement division. Electric cars are one of the solutions that are being rolled out. Being a small country, the limits of a charged battery are not so critical. They have designed a system of quick battery exchanges so the vehicle does not have to wait to be recharged but merely exchanges a rundown battery for a fully charged one. The car owner does not have to purchase the initial battery – an expensive item – instead it is rented from the firm that is rolling out the exchanging points.
This Ministry department has been tasked with now looking at the uses that natural gas can be put to, with grants available for those who can come up with novel ideas. In March they held a conference to promote natural gas uses. Dr. Bracha Halaf, the senior manager explained that natural gas was the ‘gateway to the future’.
“Israel’s ample natural gas reserves can create more than just a valuable energy supply for Israel. Because Israel’s natural gas is mostly made up of methane, the hydrocarbon substance can be used in various outlets within the chemical and transportation industries, a use that is already occurring in other OECD countries.
In the chemical industry, the natural gas could be transformed into things like naphtha, a chemical used in industrial solvents and cleaning fluids, shoe polish, lighter fluid and other modes; feedstock for ammonia-based fertilizers; olefins; formaldehyde; and acetic acid, according to Halaf. In the chemical industry as a whole, 85% of all chemicals are produced from 20 simple chemicals called base chemicals and these are produced from 10 raw materials – which include oil, natural gas and other resources, she explained.
For the transportation sector, the natural gas could be used to generate LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), jet fuel, diesel, hydrogen gas, CNG/LNG (compressed natural gas/liquefied natural gas), gasoline and biodiesel, among other things, she said. Particularly CNG and methanol are both readily available from natural gas and can be economically valuable technologies, as well as generate many new jobs, she added.
‘It can open a new era for the Israeli chemical industries’, Halaf said, calling natural gas for Israel a ‘gateway to the future’.” (Jerusalem Post 29–Mar–12)
If that were not enough, then the vast oil shale deposits which have in the past few years been discovered in Israel – estimated to be as great as the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia – have the potential to change Israel’s economic power and enable her to become independent of imported oil. The military use 50,000 barrels of oil a day, Israel as a whole needs 300,000 bpd. Israel has limited storage facilities and is dependent on a steady flow of oil for everyday life and the military defence of Israel. The quality of the oil produced from oil shale can vary considerably, however this source in Israel is particularly “sweet” – ideal for gasoline (petrol), jet fuel and diesel. The company set up to exploit this resource is Israel Energy Initiatives. Its chairman, Michael Steinhardt, said that it has the potential to make Israel the centre of economic power! No wonder Mr Putin is scheduled to make a State visit to Israel this summer (your winter)! Doubtless he and his aides will be spying out the land!
Gold rush possible in southern Israel
What a transformation in Israel’s economic potential in just the past few years! But there is potentially more. Silver and gold is part of the spoil that Gog desires. We have written in Milestones about the Australian Centamin group’s successful development of gold mining in Egypt, now we learn of another Australian mining firm anxious to explore for gold in Israel.
“First it was oil, then natural gas, now a group believes it has found a commercially-viable concentration of gold in Israel. A few weeks ago, Gulliver Energy Ltd. officially applied for a gold exploration permit in the mountainous area surrounding the southern Israel resort town of Eilat.
Chaired by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, Gulliver believes, according to past drillings, that the area contains a reasonable amount of gold in concentrations of 3–4 grams per ton. Of course, the company would also expect to find large quantities of other precious metals, like copper. The mountainous regions of southern Israel were famous for their copper mines during Israel’s biblical period.
Gulliver has teamed up with Northwood Exploration of Australia to explore the 43 square kilometer (16.6 square mile) area covered by their permit.”
However three other firms are interested in exploring for gold, and so the Israeli government has decided to award the prospecting licence to the highest bidder. We watch this development with interest.
Israel and the Iranian threat
The biggest threat to Israel comes from Iran. Iran has not flinched from pursuing the goal of having a nuclear bomb for many years. The purpose of such a weapon is to enable her to eliminate Israel. The fact that it would do untold damage to neighbouring Arabs does not deter them. The “Zionist entity” must be eliminated. Matters are getting critical, as Iran appears to be close to achieving her goal of building a nuclear weapon.
Talks by the West have, as always, been spun out without any progress. Israel’s dilemma is whether to go-it-alone or depend on America to do the deed. Israel sees that if nothing is done by the November US Presidential elections, and Obama is re-elected, then the chances of America wishing to open what could be a Pandora’s Box are slight. Will he act before the election? This appears to be the unknown factor. Should therefore Israel go alone, hoping that America will then come and support her action, as Obama will need the substantial Jewish vote in the elections.
To be fair, America has been making her own preparations. Two aircraft carriers are in the region. two squadrons of America’s most sophisticated fighter jets – the Raptor – are in the area. Big reserves of troops are in Kuwait following the withdrawal from Iraq.
Israel herself has been training for such a long distance raid, equipping her planes with disposable fuel tanks to extend their flying range. They have developed special deep penetration missiles and America has supplied the latest in bunker-busting bombs.
The most drastic step that Netanyahu has taken is to form a National Unity Government. This took everybody by surprise. Netanyahu had called for early elections in September, although he had a mandate to lead the Knesset until 2013. The very day the Knesset was to take the necessary legal steps to dissolve, Mr Netanyahu dramatically announced that he had brought the Kadima party into his coalition, giving him 94 of the 120 seats and the elections were off! The last time there was a National Unity Government was in 1967 following the closure of the Red Sea to Israeli shipping and the build-up of Arab troops. A few days later, Israel launched her pre-emptive strike – the start of the six day war!
Israel can be reasonably sure of support from most of the Middle East Arab nations. They feel just as threatened by Iran as does Israel. One interesting friend is Azerbaijan which borders the north of Iran. The friendship between the two countries has been building up over the past 20 years, to the extent that Azerbaijan is now Israel’s best Muslim customer! The reason for the friendship lies in Azerbaijan’s history. Originally part of Iran, it fell under Russian control in 1813 and became part of the Soviet Empire in 1920 until the fall of communism and the break-up of the Soviet. She gained her independence but found herself with Iran as an unfavourable neighbour. Azerbaijan’s wealth comes from her extensive supplies in the Caspian Sea. Most of it is exported to Asia, but because of troublesome neighbours, it has to take a very circuitous journey to get to her eastern markets. First it travels west along the Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan pipeline which links her Caspian oil port of Baku with the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, having snaked through Georgia to avoid Armenia. The oil then is shipped to Israel’s port of Ashkelon and traverses Israel to Eilat through the TIP – Trans Israel Pipeline – before being shipped to Asia. As well as a vital transit country, Israel purchases oil from Azerbaijan, her second biggest supplier after Russia. In return Israel has supplied extensive weaponry, drones and anti-missile defence equipment. Just this March, Azerbaijan signed a $1.6bn contract with Israel to purchase planes and equipment.
Israel seems also to have done a deal with Azerbaijan, to make use of one of her airbases in the event of an attack on Iran’s nuclear production facilities. It would be ideal for any Israeli plane that ran into difficulty to make the much shorter journey to Azerbaijan than try to get home.
Again we watch and wait knowing all things are under angelic control.
Russia prepares to move southwards
Not surprisingly Russia is making her own preparations in the eventuality of an attack on Iran. She has her own unfinished business in the region. Russia’s long-term plan is to control as much as she can of the Middle East’s energy supplies. There is one big physical problem – the Caucasus Mountains which separate Russia from the Middle East. There are a few crossing points, which following her move into two areas of Georgia in 2008 are now in her hands. However she needs to have more troops south of these mountains. In 2008 she took effective control of part of central Georgia – South Ossetia – and the western section of Georgia – Abkhazeti. Since 2008 Russia has been upgrading her facilities and equipment as well as the troop levels. She has also been upgrading her big base in Armenia, as well as the bases in Russia to the north of the mountains. This is in preparation for a big push to take over control of Georgia and Armenia and ideally Azerbaijan, which she is hoping to do under the confusion of a Western attack on Iran. This would then put Russia in a very strong position to eventually roll onwards into the Middle East when the opportunity arises.
Who can fail to be excited by the abundance of signs that the Master is at the door. With the financial world trembling; the natural world trembling, this time in Italy; with the growing desirableness of Israel as a spoil and a prey in ways which we could never have anticipated and the growing hostility to Israel we will have no excuse that we did not know the significance of the signs of our times. The prophets have spoken millennia ago, we can but stand in awe of the wisdom and foreknowledge of our God who caused them to write of these things, whose word is true and we can entrust our lives to that truth.