After protests from 25 January, 2011, Egyptian President Mubarak resigned on February 11th and handed power to the army. On 2 June, 2012, Mubarak was sentenced to life in prison and 28 days later on 30 June 2012, Mohammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was sworn in as President. His Government was seen as focusing more on bringing Islamic purity and Sharia law to Egypt than in addressing its fundamental economic problems.
Sunday, 30 June, 2013, marked the first anniversary of the Morsi Regime but it proved to be a fatal day for the administration of Mohammad Morsi. Huge crowds of protesters took to the streets. The number of people involved is estimated at 14 million. The Muslim Brotherhood headquarters in Cairo was ransacked and torched. Morsi’s initial defiance of the protesters proved fruitless. On the 4th of July, the Egyptian army deposed President Morsi, suspended the Islamist Constitution and swore in Constitutional Judge, Adly Mansour, as interim President.
Egypt is in a political crisis no doubt, but the country of near 90 million people is in a social and economic crisis as well. The American University of Cairo estimates the jobless rate for the 15–29 age group to be 60%. The country has financial reserves estimated to cover only the next three months. Bread is subsidised for the nation’s poor at 1 cent per loaf, and fuel too is heavily subsidised. Egypt cannot afford these subsidies, but cannot afford not to continue them either. Her population is increasing at a rapid pace, but the country has nowhere near enough arable land to feed its people and few resources to provide the wherewithal to import the food it needs. The Morsi government, in fact, had taken a huge gamble in slashing food imports and relying on a big domestic wheat crop this year of 9.5 million tonnes. But the US estimates that the outcome is more likely to be about 8.7 million tonnes while other forecasters estimate around 6–7 million tonnes, a disastrous outcome if it proves true.
The Nile River provides almost all of Egypt’s water and always has but the headwaters of the Nile have their origins in the mountains of Ethiopia. Back in 1929, Britain, the then Colonial power, and Egypt signed an agreement giving Egypt veto powers over upstream diversion of the Nile for irrigation, or hydro-electric works. Ethiopia, from within whose borders 85% of the flow of the River Nile originates, was not a party to this agreement and repudiates it. Ethiopia has commenced works on a huge dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on the Blue Nile. Substantial funding for the dam is being provided by the People’s Republic of China.
97% of the population of Egypt live along the Nile or in the Nile Delta; a reduction in flow from the Nile would be disastrous. A recent article in the Guardian newspaper declared: “For Ethiopia, the dam promises abundant energy and an escape from a seemingly permanent spot in the lowest rungs of the world’s human development index, but for Egypt, the consequences could be dire, a nationwide water shortage in as little as two years that causes crop failures, power cuts and instability resonating far beyond even the tumult of the recent past.”
Egypt may be in no position to do anything about Ethiopia’s plans. The military has been sabre rattling, suggesting an air attack on the dam. Better to die fighting than to die of thirst is the view of some. But it is doubtful that Egypt could carry out a successful attack on a target so far from its borders. Ethiopia has said it intends to use the dam for electricity generation both for itself and nearby African countries. It has even offered to sell some of the electricity generated to Egypt. But while the vast dam is being filled, a process that could take two to six years, water flow to Egypt will be reduced.
The prophet Ezekiel spoke of the desolation of Egypt at the hands of the Babylonians in Ezekiel 29. Perhaps there is also some latter day application, with the upstream dam on the Nile playing a part: “And the land of Egypt shall be desolate and waste; and they shall know that I am the LORD: because he hath said, the river (Nile) is mine, and I have made it. Behold, therefore I am against thee, and against thy rivers, and I will make the land of Egypt utterly waste and desolate…” (Ezek 29:9–10).
Egypt is notably absent from the list of countries allied to the northern confederacy of Ezekiel 38 and Daniel tells us that at the time when “the king of the north … shall enter into the glorious land (Israel) … and the land of Egypt shall not escape” (Dan 11:40–42). Egypt currently has a treaty with Israel that neither Morsi, nor the military have abrogated. Her supplier of military equipment and financier is the United States, together with the Saudis and the Gulf States. It would seem that these connections will stick, despite the current turmoil. Let us watch the region carefully through the days ahead.
SCOTUS versus DOMA
America loves acronyms. SCOTUS (The Supreme Court of the United States) has just rendered a decision to set aside DOMA (The Defence of Marriage Act). It has declared that all the provisions of federal law providing benefits to married couples must now be applied equally to homosexual “couples” who have “married” in those states which have legalised such “marriages”. Further, it confirmed the overthrow of Proposition 8 for the State of California. This was a California ballot proposition which passed in 2008, which provided that “only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California”. This Provision was struck down by a homosexual judge, and last month his action was ratified by the US Supreme Court. So the will of the people apparently does not prevail.
California has gone a long way down the slippery slope where evil is called good and good, evil. Some public school districts celebrate Harvey Milk Day. Harvey Milk, a so-called gay rights activist, was the first openly homosexual person to achieve public office in California. He was killed in 1979. Some allege he was not only an activist but a predator. California law mandates that as textbooks are updated “gay history” must be included. In public schools, homosexuality must be accepted as a lifestyle and behaviour as equally valid to standard marital relationships between a man and a woman. Every aspect of life must be opened up and be as equally accessible to homosexual “couples” as to normal male/female married couples. So adoption of children by such must be accepted.
A program on ABC North Queensland in July, 2010, gave an idyllic portrait of “normal” family life between two men and their adopted 5 year old “son”. The program heading was: “Two dads are better than one” but the appalling reality of the life of that little boy, whose abuse by his “dads” and others had been going on long before the deluded reporter painted her happy picture of this “family”, has now been fully exposed in all its horror. Both men have received prison sentences in the US of up to 40 years for abuse of this child which commenced shortly after he was born and continued for 6 years around the world and involved members of an international paedophile network.
Now it is true that by no means all homosexuals are paedophiles, but this report highlights the terrible dangers of a deluded western liberalism under which “equality” now seems to mean, anything goes. Paul declared: “Know ye not that the unrighteous shall not inherit the kingdom of God? Be not deceived: neither fornicators, nor idolators, nor adulterers, nor effeminate, nor abusers of themselves with mankind, nor thieves, nor covetous, nor drunkards, nor revilers, nor extortioners, shall inherit the kingdom of God” (1Cor 6:9–10). We ought not to focus only on one category of sin, but it remains true that not too many classes of sinners deny that their behaviour is sin, demand that it be publicly accepted as legitimate, and are successful in receiving wide acceptance in our communities.
We will surely find that the impact of this lifestyle will more and more be imposed upon us in schools, in commerce, in our nursing homes, indeed in every aspect of life and we will be seen as bigoted and unreasonable in opposing its acceptance into mainstream “ordinary” life, and will be treated with hostility on this account. There is a growing irritation and hostility in the Western media and political circles against Christian belief and practice, and we will be included in that hostility. Much of “Christianity” has already run up the white flag. We will find our tolerant society will tolerate anything at all, except those that do not “go along” with their “inclusive” ideals.
Israel, illegal immigrants, gas supplies etc
A number of countries including our own have problems with illegal immigrants who just cross the border and turn up. What to do? Israel of recent times has had problems with thousands of Africans who transit Egypt, the Sinai desert and cross the border into Israel. Apparently they have not sought refuge in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria etc. Funnily enough, they are headed for a country that works, that can feed itself, that is free, that is democratic and prosperous. Only one country in the Middle East even comes close to meeting that definition.
An article in Arutz Sheva noted: “While 9,570 citizens of various African countries entered Israel illegally in the first half of 2012, only 34 did the same in the first six months of 2013 – a decrease of over 99%. Multiple developments have been credited for the dramatic change. One is the new security fence which covers the 230 kilometres of border between Israel and Egypt. Another is a law which went into effect in June 2012 under which illegal entrants to Israel who do not have refugee status are arrested.”
Israel is concerned about events on its borders with Syria and Lebanon in particular, but is increasingly prosperous and confident in its own strength. When it has a problem, such as illegal immigrants, it takes decisive action. It now has its energy needs covered for decades from its new gas fields off the Mediterranean coast. Prime Minister Netanyahu has reserved at least 50% of production for Israel itself. This has caused some dismay to potential operators, who had done their sums based on a larger export market. Australia’s Woodside now has said it needs to reconsider its position on an investment to secure a 30% stake in the venture. Woodside had earmarked substantial export tonnages for shipment to China, but must now rework all its projections in the light of Netanyahu’s decision.
Israeli inventions, brain power and production facilities are now central, perhaps even essential to the world’s computer facilities. With its wealth, including now petrochemicals and its “Silicon Valley” profile, Israel is more and more fitting the profile of a “spoil and a prey”.
Iran
Presidential elections in Iran have seen the election of Hassan Rowhani as President and the departure of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Already, in the endlessly gullible West, he is being proclaimed as a “moderate”. Rowhani was a member of the revolution; he is a conservative and part of the Regime. Policy will continue to be set by Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard. But the presence of a “moderate” at the centre of power will disarm the West and let Iran continue on its course. The centrifuges will keep spinning to produce fissile material. Some reports suggest Iran will have enough material for 1 nuclear bomb within a couple of months with more to follow.
Western sanctions are costly and hurting Iran’s economy, but the Regime is prepared to bear the pain because of the huge leverage having nuclear weapons will provide. The West does not understand this level of focus as religious commitment is now a mystery to Western leaders. Russia now refers contemptuously to the US as Sodom and Gomorrah. Putin considers Russia a Christian country, but not the US. He mocks Obama for supporting the rebels in Syria, who butcher and behead the Christians who were protected by Assad. Putin let Obama’s Secretary of State, John Kerry, cool his heels in the corridor for three hours before deigning to meet with him. Obama talks grandly about relinquishing America’s nuclear weapons, while Russia forges ahead with the modernisation of its military.
So in the Middle Eastern arena, Iran draws closer and closer to having nuclear weapons, with the clear intention of mounting them on ballistic missiles. Internal conflict continues in Turkey, Egypt is in turmoil, the Syrian civil war continues creating havoc for her people, and a massive refugee problem for the surrounding states such as Jordan. American “policy” is treated with contempt by Russia, and with a fearful trepidation by Israel. If we wondered about the tepid response from the Tarshish powers to the invasion of the Northern confederation (Ezek 38:13), we have no grounds to wonder any more. Obama was not proud of America’s former status as “the world’s only superpower”, he was plainly embarrassed and determined to change that. And he has.
The sea and the waves are roaring; perilous times have come. Blessed is he that watcheth and keepeth his garments.